I have been waiting for this quarter since I wrote my first Microsoft piece. That article made the case that Microsoft’s capex was building something real, even while the market spent the better part of a year punishing the stock for spending too much and showing too little for it. F4Q26 is the quarter where the thesis stopped being a promise and started being a number.
Microsoft reported fiscal fourth quarter results on July 29, 2026. The stock closed that day at $390.54. Today it closed at $484.31, up roughly 24% in the weeks since. I do not think that move was an overreaction. I think it was the market finally pricing in what the underlying business had already started doing.
